Tasmania is expected to experience warmer average temperatures and above average rainfall this spring.
For spring the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an increased likelihood of above average temperatures across the state and is expecting a higher chance of above average rainfall in the North and West.
Overnight temperatures are also likely to be above average.
The BOM’s climate operations manager Andrew Watkins said the outlook was largely driven by changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans.
“Most long-range forecasts analysed by the bureau, including from our own climate model, are indicating a La Nia could develop in the spring, which typically results in above-average winter-spring rainfall for Australia,” he said.
“A La Nia also typically brings cooler and cloudier days, more tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the first rains of the northern wet season.”
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Dr Watkins said spring was typically a time of year when outlook models had a higher reliability.
“At this time of year, we start to see some of our main climate drivers locking in, which gives more certainty about what our weather patterns will be like in the coming months,” he said.
“We’re starting to see that in the Pacific with a La Nia beginning to take shape, and we are also seeing some changes in the Indian Ocean, which may also boost the chance of rain during spring.”
A preliminary winter summary for Tasmania followed the rest of the nation, who experienced a drier than average winter, with the North-West experiencing what is likely to be one of its 10 driest winter’s on record.
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